Improving Early Outbreak Detection Capabilities
Research Abstract
The threat of a
biological terror attack and epidemic outbreak has forced the public
in health infrastructure to develop real time warning systems based
on data collected through the healthcare system. BioDefendTM in
collaboration with the Center for Biological Defense at USF is one
of the first internet enabled warning system that collects data,
calculates alert statistics, and send the alert information to the
designated persons on a real time basis. However, researchers
involved in the development of BioDefendTM believe that the alert
statistics and the rules for generating alerts are in genuine need
of further investigation. In this research we develop a system of
generating alerts based on sound statistical and economic
principles, which will maximize the social benefits of BioDefendTM
by minimizing the cost of false alarm and detection delay. The
methodology is based in the construction of a comprehensive cost
model using the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT). This
model will include the cost of false alarm and cost of delay in
alarm generation. The proposed model will allow the development of
epidemic specific alert systems and will be tested using real data
collected by BioDefendTM. The impact of this work relies in the
societal benefits of an efficient early warning system protecting
the population from the spread of epidemic outbreaks and it also
generates an opportunity for students to participate in a topic of
national importance.
Publications
- Martinez,
D., Das, T. K. and Zayas-Castro, J. L. 2007.
An
Economic Sequential Probability Ratio Test (ESPRT) Approach to
Enhance Surveillance Alert Utility of Early Warning Systems.
Working paper.
Conference Presentations
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